Central Visayas

Inflation for the bottom 30% income households in Central Visayas in May 2025 contracted by 1.9 percent from 0.5 percent annual increase in April 2025. In May 2024, inflation rate was recorded at 5.8 percent. (Tables 1 and 2)

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Regional Inflation

The downtrend in overall inflation for all income households in May 2025 was primarily brought about by the faster year-on-year decline in the index for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which registered a 5.0 percent annual decrease during the month compared to a 1.0 percent annual decrease in the previous month. This was followed by the slower year-on-year increase in the index of transport at 4.3 percent in May 2025 from 9.6 percent in April 2025. 

Slower annual increases were also observed in the indices of the following commodity groups during the month:
a.    Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent; 
b.    Recreation, sport, and culture, 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent; and 
c.    Health, 1.4 percent from 1.5 percent.

In contrast, faster annual increment was noted in the index of Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 0.7 percent in May 2025 from 0.6 percent in  April 2025. 

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their previous month's rates:
a.    Alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 5.1 percent;
b.    Clothing and footwear at 1.0 percent;
c.    Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, at 1.5 percent;
d.    Information and communication at 0.0 percent;
e.    Education services at 7.7 percent;
f.    Restaurants and accommodation services at 0.0 percent; and
g.    Financial services at 0.0 percent.

Main Contributor to the Regional Inflation

The main commodity group that contributed to the May 2025 overall regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households was food and non-alcoholic beverages with 139.3 percent share or -2.65 percentage points.

Food Inflation

Food inflation for the bottom 30% income households at the regional level declined further to 5.4 percent in May 2025 from an annual decline of 1.3 percent in the previous month. In May 2024, food inflation in the region recorded at 6.5 percent. (Table 3)

Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The decline in food inflation in May 2025 was primarily brought about by the faster year-on-year decrease of 21.0 percent in the index of corn during the month from 0.9 percent annual decrement in April 2025. This was followed by vegetables. tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, with an annual decrease of 15.4 percent during the month from an annual increase of 3.0 percent in April 2025. In addition, rice also contributed to the downtrend as it recorded a faster year-on-year decrease of 16.4 percent during the month from 15.5 percent annual decline in April 2025.

In addition, slower annual increase was observed during the month in the index of fruits and nuts at 3.9 percent from 4.7 percent in April 2025.

On the contrary, faster annual increments during the month were observed in the indices of the following food groups:

a.    Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 8.2 percent from 7.6 percent;
b.    Fish and other seafood, 9.9 percent from 8.0 percent; and 
c.    Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 5.5 percent from 3.5 percent; 

Moreover, the index of Sugar, confectionery and desserts recorded an annual increase of 0.9 percent in May 2025 from 1.0 percent annual decline in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the indices of ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified, and flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals retained their previous month’s rates at 1.0 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.

Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

Food inflation contributed 142.2 percent or -2.70 percentage points to the May 2025 overall regional inflation for the bottom 30% income households. Among the food groups, the main contributors to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a.    Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals with 132.3 percent share or -7.15 percentage points; 
b.    Vegetables. tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with 23.6 percent share or -1.27percentage points; and
c.    Oils and fats with -0.02 percent share or 0.00 percentage point.

Inflation Rate by Region

In May 2025, three regions recorded lower inflation. Two regions experienced a reversal from positive to negative inflation. Five regions posted faster annual declines, while two recorded slower year-on-year decreases. Moreover, four regions registered faster annual increases. Meanwhile, two regions retained their previous month’s rates. The highest inflation was observed in Region I (Ilocos Region), while the lowest inflation rate was recorded in Region XI (Davao Region) and BARMM (Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao), both at -2.0 percent. (Figure 2)

Inflation Rate by Province/HUC

Among the provinces and Highly Urbanized Cities (HUCs) in Central Visayas, one province and one HUC recorded slower annual declines in inflation rates in May 2025 compared to the previous month. Meanwhile, one province and two HUCs registered a reversal in inflation, shifting from positive in the previous month to negative during the month. (Figure 3)
 

TECHNICAL NOTES

Starting February 2022, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all income households to base year 2018, from base year 2012 as announced in the press release number 2022-01 dated 04 January 2022. The CPI series for all income households for January 2022 onwards will be 2018-based.

The Philippine Statistics Authority generates and announces the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on a nationwide survey of prices for a given basket of goods and services. Two important indicators, the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP), are derived from the CPI which are important in monitoring price stability and the value of the country’s currency. 

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year. 

Retail Price is the price at which a commodity is sold for spot in small quantities for consumption.

Base Period/Base Year is the period, usually a year, at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series.

Market Basket is a term used to refer to a sample of goods and services that are commonly purchased and bought by an average Filipino household.

Weight is a value attached to a commodity or ground of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket. 

Inflation Rate is equivalent to a decline in the purchasing power of the peso. It is the change in the CPI over a specific period of time (usually a month or a year). That is, 

where: 

CPI₁ - is the CPI in the previous period 

CPI₂ - is the CPI in the current period 

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) is a measure of the real value of the peso in a given period relative to a chosen reference period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100. That is, 

Headline Inflation is the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket. 

WILMA A. PERANTE
(Director II)
Officer-in-Charge