Starting February 2022, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all income households to base year 2018, from base year 2012 as announced in the press release number 2022-01 dated 04 January 2022. The CPI series for all income households for January 2023 onwards will be 2018-based.

A. Philippines

The country’s inflation rate has increased to 3.9 percent in May 2024 from 3.8 percent in April 2024. Despite the increase, the inflation rate in May 2023 was still high at 6.1 percent. The year-to-date average inflation rate, that is from January to May 2024, stood at 3.5 percent. (Table A)

B. Central Visayas

Central Visayas’ inflation rate has increased to 4.0 percent in May 2024 from 3.2 percent in April 2024. In May 2023, the inflation rate was higher at 5.4 percent. (Table A)

C. Province of Negros Oriental

1. Headline Inflation

Headline inflation or the overall inflation in Negros Oriental has decreased to 3.6 percent in May 2024 from 4.7 percent in April 2024. The inflation rate in  May 2023 was observed at 7.3 percent. This brings the average inflation rate from January to May 2024 to 4.7 percent. (Figure 1)

The province’s inflation rate was lower than the region’s inflation rate. (Table 1)

1.1    Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downward trend in the overall inflation in May 2024 was primarily brought about by the lower year-on-year decrease of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 3.0 percent from 5.5 percent in the previous month. This was followed by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 5.3 percent from 6.5 percent. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance ranked third at 0.6 percent in May 2024 from 1.2 percent in the previous month. This was followed by Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 2.6 percent from 3.0 percent. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco ranked fifth at 2.9 percent in May 2024 from 3.9 percent in the previous month. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services ranked sixth at 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent in the previous month. Seventh in rank was Health at 5.3 percent from 5.6 percent. Followed by Clothing and Footwear at 1.8 percent from 2.0 percent. Recreation, Sport and Culture ranked ninth at 2.7 percent in May 2024 from 2.9 percent in the previous month.

Moreover, higher inflation rate was observed in Transport at 2.2 percent from 1.8 percent in the previous month.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their previous month's inflation rate:

    a. Education Services at 0.5 percent;
    b. Information and Communication at 0.1 percent; and
    c. Financial Services at -0.8 percent.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Provincial Inflation Rate

The top 3 commodity groups contributing to the May 2024 provincial inflation rate of 3.6 percent were the following:

    a. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 57.4 percent share or 2.07 percentage points;
    b. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 21.3 percent share or 0.77 percentage points; and 
    c. Transport at 5.9 percent share or 0.21 percentage point.

2. Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level has decreased at 5.6 percent in May 2024 from 6.7 percent in April 2024. In May 2023, food inflation was higher at 7.7 percent. (Tables 6 and 7)

2.1 Main Drivers to the Food Inflation

Higher inflation rates during the month were observed in the indices of the following food items: (Table 5)

    a. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) at 2.4 percent from 1.3 percent; and
    b. Sugar, Confectionery and Desserts at -5.3 percent from -7.4 percent.

On the other hand, compared to the previous month’s inflation rates, lower inflation rates were observed in the indices of the following food groups during the month:

    a. Cereals and Cereal Product (ND) at 14.6 percent from 16.2 percent;
    b. Rice at 24.7 percent from 26.3 percent;
    c. Cereals (ND) at 18.7 percent from 20.0 percent;
    d. Fish and other seafood (ND) at -1.7 percent from 1.1 percent; 
    e. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND) at 6.4 percent from 7.3 percent; 
    f. Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND) at 1.9 percent from 3.2 percent;
    g. Fruits and Nuts (ND) at -9.9 percent from -8.8 percent; and
    h. Corn at 6.7 percent from 7.1 percent.

Meanwhile, Oils and Fats (ND) has retained its previous month's inflation rate at 2.6 percent and Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c (ND) at 2.5 percent.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

In terms of contribution to the May 2024 provincial inflation rate, food shared 
56.6 percent or 2.04 percentage points. Of the food groups, the top contributors to inflation were the following:

    a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 52.7 percent share or 1.90 percentage points;
    b. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with 7.1 percent share or 0.26 percentage point; and
    c. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) with 1.8 percent share or 0.06 percentage point.

D. Province of Negros Oriental

1. Provincial Inflation (Bottom 30%)

In April 2024, inflation for the Bottom 30% Income Households was recorded at 5.0 percent. Last March 2024, it was recorded at 4.4 percent. Despite the increase, the inflation rate in April 2023 was still high at 16.4 percent.

1.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Inflation of Bottom 30%

The main driver to the inflation of Bottom 30% in April 2024 was primarily brought about by the higher year-on-year increase of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 7.6 percent from 6.4 percent in the previous month. This was followed by Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 2.2 percent from 1.7 percent. Restaurants and Accommodation Services was the third contributor that has retained its previous month’s inflation rate at 3.0 percent from 3.7 percent.

Moreover, lower inflation rates were observed in the following commodity groups during the month:

    a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 6.0 percent from 6.3 percent;
    b. Clothing and Footwear, 3.5 percent from 4.4 percent;
    c. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 3.1 percent from 4.0 percent;
    d. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 1.6 percent from 2.1 percent; 
    e. Transport, 1.1 percent from 0.9 percent; 
    f. Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 3.0 percent from 3.7 percent; and
    g. Health, 4.1 percent from 4.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their previous month's inflation rate:

    a. Information and Communication at 0.0 percent;
    b. Education Services at 0.6 percent; 
    c. Recreation, Sport and Culture at 7.3 percent; and
    d. Financial Services at -11.1 percent.

TECHNICAL NOTES

The Philippine Statistics Authority generates and announces the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on a nationwide survey of prices for a given basket of goods and services. Two important indicators, the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP), are derived from the CPI which are important in monitoring price stability and the value of the country’s currency.  

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Retail Price is the price at which a commodity is sold for spot in small quantities for consumption.

Base Period/Base Year is the period, usually a year, at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series.

Market Basket is a term used to refer to a sample of goods and services that are commonly purchased and bought by an average Filipino household.

Weight is a value attached to a commodity or ground of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket.

Inflation Rate is equivalent to a decline in the purchasing power of the peso. It is the change in the CPI over a specific period of time (usually a month or a year). That is,

where:     

CPI1 - is the CPI in the previous period 
CPI2 - is the CPI in the current period

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) is a measure of the real value of the peso in a given period relative to a chosen reference period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100. That is, 
 

Headline Inflation is the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket.

Prepared by:

(SGD.)
ELMER T. BARING                   
Statistical Analyst          

Approved by:

(SGD.)
ARIEL T. FORTUITO
Chief Statistical Specialist