A. Philippines

The country’s inflation rate has decreased to 1.9 percent in September 2024 from 3.3 percent in August 2024. Despite the decrease, the inflation rate in September 2023 was higher at 6.1 percent. The year-to-date average inflation rate, that is from January to September 2024, stood at 3.4 percent. (Table A)

B. Central Visayas

Central Visayas’ inflation rate has decreased to 2.1 percent in September 2024 from 3.4 percent in August 2024. In September 2023, the inflation rate was higher at 3.8 percent. (Table A)

C. Province of Negros Oriental

1. Headline Inflation

Headline inflation or the overall inflation in Negros Oriental has decreased to 1.5 percent in September 2024 from 2.7 percent in August 2024. The inflation rate in  September 2023 was observed at 7.1 percent. This brings the average inflation rate from January to September 2024 to 3.9 percent. (Figure 1)

The province’s inflation rate was lower than the region’s inflation rate. (Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downward trend in the overall inflation in September 2024 was primarily brought about by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 2.3 percent from 4.8 percent in the previous month. This was followed by Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, at 2.0 percent from 1.5 percent. Education services ranked third at 10.2 percent from 10.7 percent in the previous month.

Moreover, lower inflation rates were observed in the following commodity groups during the month: (Table 3)

    a. Health, 4.6 percent from 4.7 percent;
    b. Clothing and Footwear, 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent;
    c. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 1.1 percent from 1.5 percent;
    d.Restaurants and Accommodation Services, 0.7 percent from 2.1 percent;
    e. Recreation, Sport and culture, 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent; and
    f. Transport, -4.7 percent from -1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their previous month's inflation rates:

    a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco at 1.4 percent;
    b. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance at 0.6 percent;
    c. Information and Communication at 0.1 percent; and
    d. Financial Services at -0.8 percent.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Provincial Inflation Rate

The top 3 commodity groups contributing to the September 2024 provincial inflation rate of 3.4 percent were the following:

    a. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 59.4 percent share or  0.89 percentage point;
    b.Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 33.8 percent share or 0.51 percentage point; and 
    c. Education Services at 15.5 percent share or 0.23 percentage point.

2. Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level has decreased to 2.4 percent in September 2024 from 5.0 percent in August 2024. In September 2023, food inflation was higher at 7.7 percent. (Tables 6 and 7)

2.1 Main Drivers to the Food Inflation

The main driver to the inflation of Food was brought about by Corn at 14.4 percent from 8.0 percent. This was followed by Rice at 5.9 percent from 17.0 percent.  Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals (ND) ranked third at 8.8 percent from 12.5 percent.

Lower inflation rates during the month were observed in the indices of the following food items: (Table 5)

    a. Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND) at 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent;
    b. Oils and Fats (ND) at 1.5 percent from 2.2 percent;
    c. Sugar, confectionery and desserts (ND) at -6.3 percent from -5.6 percent; and
    d. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) at -9.1 percent 
from -0.2 percent.

Higher inflation rates during the month were observed in the indices of the following food items: (Table 5)

    a. Fruits and Nuts at 2.2 percent from 1.0 percent; and
    b. Fish and other seafoods at -0.6 percent from -1.2 percent.

Meanwhile, one food group has retained its previous month's inflation rate and it was Ready-made and other food products n.e.c. (ND) at 2.1 percent.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

In terms of contribution to the September 2024 provincial inflation rate, food shared 
58.3 percent or 0.87 percentage point. Of the food groups, the top contributors to inflation were the following:

    a. Cereals and cereal products, which includes rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with 53.2 percent share or 0.80 percentage point;
    b. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with 21.4 percent share or 0.32 percentage point; and
    c. Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c with 1.7 percent share or 0.03 percentage point.

D. Province of Negros Oriental

1. Provincial Inflation (Bottom 30%)

In September 2024, inflation for the Bottom 30% Income Households was recorded at 
2.1 percent. Last August 2024, it was recorded at 3.5 percent. Despite the decrease, the inflation rate in September 2023 was higher at 15.4 percent.

1.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Inflation of Bottom 30%

The main driver to the inflation of Bottom 30% in September 2024 was primarily brought about by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 3.7 percent from 5.8 percent in the previous month. This was followed by Clothing and Footwear at 3.0 percent. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels ranked third at 0.4 percent from 1.4 percent.

Moreover, lower inflation rates were also observed in the following commodity groups during the month:

    a. Health, 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent;
    b. Restaurants and Accommodation Services, 0.8 percent from 2.0 percent;
    c. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 0.9 percent from 1.4 percent;
    d. Education Services, 12.9 percent from 13.6 percent;
    e. Recreation, Sport and Culture, 2.6 percent from 3.8 percent; and
    f. Transport, -4.0 percent from -1.5 percent.

Only Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco has a high inflation rate during the month which recorded at 3.0 percent from 2.7 percent.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups retained their previous month's inflation rate:

    a. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance at 0.4 percent;
    b. Information and Communication at 0.0 percent; and
    c. Financial Services at -11.1 percent.

TECHNICAL NOTES

The Philippine Statistics Authority generates and announces the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on a nationwide survey of prices for a given basket of goods and services. Two important indicators, the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP), are derived from the CPI which are important in monitoring price stability and the value of the country’s currency.  

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Retail Price is the price at which a commodity is sold for spot in small quantities for consumption.

Base Period/Base Year is the period, usually a year, at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series.

Market Basket is a term used to refer to a sample of goods and services that are commonly purchased and bought by an average Filipino household.

Weight is a value attached to a commodity or ground of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket.

Inflation Rate is equivalent to a decline in the purchasing power of the peso. It is the change in the CPI over a specific period of time (usually a month or a year). That is,

where:     

CPI1 - is the CPI in the previous period 
CPI2 - is the CPI in the current period

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) is a measure of the real value of the peso in a given period relative to a chosen reference period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100. That is, 
 

Headline Inflation is the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket.

Prepared by:

(SGD.)
ELMER T. BARING                   
Statistical Analyst          

Approved by:

(SGD.)
ARIEL T. FORTUITO
Chief Statistical Specialist