Starting February 2022, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all income households to base year 2018, from base year 2012 as announced in the press release number 2022-01 dated 04 January 2022. The CPI series for all income households for January 2023 onwards will be 2018-based.

A. Philippines

The country’s inflation rate has decreased to 2.8 percent in January 2024 from 3.9 percent in December 2023. Despite the decrease, the inflation rate in January 2023 was still high at 8.7 percent. The year-to-date average inflation rate, that is from January to December 2023, stood at 2.8 percent. (Table A)

B. Central Visayas

Central Visayas’ inflation rate has decreased to 2.5 percent in January 2024 from 3.9 percent in December 2023. In January 2023, the inflation rate was higher at 7.2 percent. (Table A)

C. Province of Negros Oriental

1. Headline Inflation

Headline inflation or the overall inflation in Negros Oriental has decreased to 4.6 percent in January 2024 from 5.6 percent in December 2023. The inflation rate in January 2023 was observed at 7.4 percent. This brings the average inflation rate from January to December 2023 to 4.6 percent. (Figure 1)

The province’s inflation rate was higher than the region’s inflation rate. (Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The main driver for the downtrend of province’s inflation was primarily brought about by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 3.5 percent in January 2024 from 5.7 percent in December 2023. This was followed by Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 8.5 percent from 8.9 percent in December 2023; and lastly, Clothing and Footwear at 3.6 percent in January 2024 from 4.4 percent in December 2023. (Table 3, Figure 2)
 

Moreover, lower inflation rates were observed in the following commodity groups during the month: (Table 3)
    a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 9.6 percent from 9.8 percent;
    b. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance, 1.1 percent from 1.4 percent;
    c. Health, 5.0 percent from 5.3 percent;
    d. Recreation, sport and culture, 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent;
    e. Financial services, -0.8 percent from 0.0 percent.

On the contrary, Transport posted a faster annual increment at 0.4 percent from 0.1 percent in December 2023.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups had retained its previous month’s annual rate:

    a. Information and communication, 0.0 percent;
    b. Education services, 0.5 percent;
    c. Restaurants and accommodation services, 6.0 percent and;
    d. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 3.9 percent.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Provincial Inflation Rate

The top 3 commodity groups contributing to the January 2024 provincial inflation rate of 4.6 percent were the following:

    a. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 47.8 percent share or 2.2 percentage points;
    b. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages at 30.1 percent share or 1.38 percentage points; and
    c. Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 6.5 percent share or 0.3 percentage point.

2. Food Inflation

Food inflation at the provincial level has decreased to 3.5 percent in January 2024 from 5.9 percent in December 2023. In January 2023, food inflation was higher at 11.2 percent. (Tables 6 and 7)

2.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of Food Inflation

The decreased of food inflation in January 2024 was influenced by the following food items:
    a. Fish and other seafood at 2.7 percent from 6.3 percent;
    b. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses (ND) at -17.9 percent from -10.2 percent; and
    c. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 2.2 percent from 5.1 percent.

Lower inflation rates were also noted on the following food items:

    a. Flour, Bread and Other Bakery Products, Pasta Products, and Other Cereals, 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent; 
    b. Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 6.7 percent from 9.4 percent;
    c. Oils and fats, 3.7 percent from 10.7 percent;
    d. Sugar, confectionary and desserts, -4.3 percent from -4.1 percent and
    e. Ready-made good and other food products, 2.8 percent from 3.1 percent.

On the other hand, compared with their previous month’s inflation rates, higher year-on-year growth rates were observed in the indices of the following food groups during the month: (Table 5)

    a. Rice at 27.5 percent from 26.6 percent; and
    b. Fruits and nuts at -10.3 percent from -10.9 percent.

One food item has retained its previous month’s inflation rate and it was Corn at -2.8 percent.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation

In terms of contribution to the January 2024 provincial inflation rate, food shared 28.5 percent or 1.31 percentage points. Of the food groups, the top contributors to inflation were the following:

    a. Cereal and cereal products with 109.5 percent share or 3.83 percentage points;
    b. Milk, other dairy products and eggs (ND) with 10.8 percent share or 0.38 percent point; and
    c. Fish and other seafood (ND) with 9.2 percent share or 0.32 percentage point.

 

TECHNICAL NOTES

The Philippine Statistics Authority generates and announces the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) based on a nationwide survey of prices for a given basket of goods and services. Two important indicators, the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP), are derived from the CPI which are important in monitoring price stability and the value of the country’s currency.  

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Retail Price is the price at which a commodity is sold for spot in small quantities for consumption.

Base Period/Base Year is the period, usually a year, at which the index number is set to 100. It is the reference point of the index number series.

Market Basket is a term used to refer to a sample of goods and services that are commonly purchased and bought by an average Filipino household.

Weight is a value attached to a commodity or ground of commodities to indicate the relative importance of that commodity or group of commodities in the market basket.

Inflation Rate is equivalent to a decline in the purchasing power of the peso. It is the change in the CPI over a specific period of time (usually a month or a year). That is,

where:     

CPI1 - is the CPI in the previous period 
CPI2 - is the CPI in the current period

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) is a measure of the real value of the peso in a given period relative to a chosen reference period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100. That is, 
 

Headline Inflation is the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket.

Prepared by:

(SGD.)
ELMER T. BARING                   
Statistical Analyst          

Approved by:

(SGD.)
ARIEL T. FORTUITO
Chief Statistical Specialist